ATP US Open / Medvedev vs Nadal – If we judge by several recent tournaments two players who are right now in their best shape have reached the final of the US Open. They demonstrated high performances throughout the US Open and they defeated their opponents in the semi-finals without dropping a set.
Match Medvedev vs Nadal begins 08.09.2019 at 22:00 CET
Medvedev needed two hours and 40 minutes to defeat G. Dimitrov in the semi-finals. We know that the Bulgarian was not in a good shape lately and reaching the semi-finals was in fact a surprise. His quarter-final triumph over Federer is considered as a big surprise as well, especially as he trailed behind twice in the match. We believed that Dimitrov cannot repeat such performances against Medvedev, although in several moments in the match he was a better player on the court.
As we have said Medvedev has played well at several recent tournaments and his performances and results at the US Open are fully expected. True, N. Djokovic or R. Federer were expected in this part of the draw but Medvedev is the one who could reach the very end. Statistically, the Russian was better than Dimitrov in almost all parameters. The only thing that worries is percent of the first service that stands at low 47%.
Nadal reached his 5th finals at the US Open, while out of previous four finals he lost only one played in 2011 to N. Djokovic. Nadal won the US Open the last time in 2017 when he defeated K. Anderson in the final. Last year's attempt to defend the title at the at the last Grand Slam tournament of the season ended for Nadal in the semi-finals when he lost to J. M. Del Potro.
Regarding the semi-final match, Nadal had a relatively easy job considering that he faced young Italian M. Berrettini. The Italian put up a serious resistance only in the first set which finished in the tie-break. It is interesting that Berrettini had a 4-0 advantage in the tie-break of the first set, and when he failed to put in good use such advantage a defeat was inevitable. It is also interesting that the Italian made 44 unforced errors, while Nadal made only 18 of them.
Betting Pick: Medvedev vs Nadal
Nadal and Medvedev have met only once before, at recently finished Masters in Montreal. Nadal won they by sound 6-0, 6-3. There is no doubt that Nadal is again a big favourite to win, but we believe that he will not win as easy as it was the case in Montreal since Medvedev plays excellently and he should put up a stronger resistance in important match like this one is. We would play on counter handicap in number of won games.
Pick: Medvedev +8.5 games
Odds: 1.50 at 10bet (down to 1.47 can be played)
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