Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg / Bundesliga – The last match of the round is at the same time very important match for both teams. Mainz is under bigger pressure as it occupies place that leads to the relegation play-off, while Freiburg has three points more and by that its situation is a bit better, although after the match it can completely turn up-side down. Mainz didn’t win in previous six rounds but it drew four times in the same period, while Freiburg did worse as it lost three previous matches. Their head-to-head played in the first part of season had ended as Freiburg’s victory 2-1. Begins: 16.04.2018 – 20:30 CET
Despite being undefeated in previous two rounds Mainz’s situation is getting more and more complicated. The team needs victories and it won just once in previous 10 matches. After unexpected triumph in Berlin Mainz drew two times with direct competitors in survival race, Wolfsburg and HSV, and then lost two matches to teams positioned around top of table, Schalke 04 and Eintracht.
In two previous rounds Mainz again drew but the result cannot be called failure as it pulled 0-0 with Borussia M’gladbach at home and 1-1 in Cologne in previous round. Stopper Bell didn’t play in the last match as he was injured, while the rest of team was the same. Now, Donati will not play for sure as he was sent off in previous round, which will cause certain rotations in the defence, where Diallo and Bell are still questionable.
Probable lineups Mainz 05: Adler – Brosinski, Balogun, Hack, Holtmann – S. Serdar, Gmabin, Latza – de Blasis, Oztunali – Berggreen
It seemed that Freiburg won’t have problems with survival this season but crisis hit them at very sensitive moment and is still on-going. Freiburg didn’t win in previous six rounds and in the period it drew only two times and lost even four. Three previous matches were lost and out of those three defeats two were suffered at home by teams that dwell in lower part of the table, Stuttgart and Wolfsburg. Defeat by Wolfsburg was especially painful as the team closed in on them to just one point after their head-to-head.
After this away match they have to go to Hamburg and clearly everything can be resolved in these two matches, but also the situation can become totally complicated. Freiburg has difficulties to score and in last six matches it scored just two, while in last two it scored no goals and both were lost by 2-0. Suspension for forward Peterseon was annulled and he played against Wolfsburg and by that the team was the same like in Gelsenkirchen. Now, it is likely that manager Streich will make no changes.
Probable lineups SC Freiburg: Schwolow – R. Koch, Gulde, Soyuncu – P. Stenzel, Sierro, Hofler, Gunter – Haberer, Kath – Petersen
Mainz 05 – SC Freiburg PICK
Both teams are equally weak shape but also play much better at home this season, which is why we give advantage in this match to Mainz. The home team is closer to win and if it fails to do so draw is far more likely to happen than Freiburg to win.
Pick: Asian handicap 0 Mainz
Odds: 1.65 at betvictor (down to 1.56 can be played)