Dimitrov vs. Goffin / ATP Finals London – It was really unlikely to expect that the two players, G. Dimitrov and G. Goffin, will be finalists of the ATP Finals in London having R. Nadal and R. Federer as competitors. However, one has to admit that both of them played very well throughout the whole tournament and fully deserve to fight for the prestigious title. Begins: 19.11.2017 – 19:00 CET
Dimitrov won all matches before this final, which is definitely a respectable result if we take into consideration that only 8 best players in the world can participate at this tournament. In the semi-final his opponent was J. Sock that was also in a very good shape given that 15 days ago he won title at the Masters in Paris. Dimitrov was regarded as a favourite to win the match but Sock was better in the beginning of it when he won the first set.
However, Dimitrov didn’t throw in the towel and he managed to equalise the result in the second set without dropping a game. It remains mystery how player like Sock can suddenly play so badly after advantage of 1-0 in sets. The winner of the semi-final match was resolved in the third set in which Dimitrov makes a break when the result read 4-3. In following service game de used the fourth match point and won. Statistic of the match is mostly on Dimitrov’s side but the difference is quite small, within 2%-3%.
Goffin made a great surprise in the semi-final when he eliminated the first favourite from the tournament R. Federer 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. To make matters worse for Federer, the Swiss had advantage of one set and we know that Federer very rarely loses matches in situation like that. How much Goffin was underestimated in the semi-final it can be seen through fact that odds on Federer’s victory were around 1.07 while on Goffin’s were around 8.50.
Surprises are not uncommon in tennis, especially in this season that is a bit unusual due to absence of large number of players who used to comprise the very top of ATP rank list. If we put aside disappointing match of the second round in Group A Goffin played well throughout the whole tournament and he also defeated R. Nadal at the very beginning, which is why we have to admit that he is full deservedly in the final.
G. Dimitrov – D. Goffin PICK
We had analysed the two players in their match in the second round in Group A when we went through several of their previous head-to-heads, but now we will focus only on their last match in which Goffin totally underperformed and won just two games. It is hard to find cause for such poor performances but we can surely expect much better play from the Belgian player in the final than it was the case several days ago. Bookies again give advantage to Dimitrov but this is the final in which we shouldn’t witness the abovementioned situation. That is why it is realistic to expect far more uncertainty that should result with more games than the two of them played in their match from four days ago.
Pick: over 20.5 games
Odds: 1.54 at 10bet (down to 1.51 can be played)