Santos vs. Fluminense / BRA Serie A – Along with the World Cup qualifiers in Russia, we are already used having in this same period, a few matches in Brazilian Serie A, and we have this time decided to analyse a derby match in the 29th round which will be played between Santos and Fluminense. Otherwise, these two teams are currently on neighbouring positions on the table, with the proviso that the fourth Santos has two points more, while the guests from Rio de Janeiro are coming to this match in a somewhat better shape because they managed to record three victories in the championship. As for their previous duels, Santos has won the last two, while previously Fluminense had three consecutive triumphs. Begins: 06.10.2016. – 02:00 CET
Of course that Santos now hopes for a third consecutive victory over Fluminense, especially since they are lately playing much better at home than on the side. Thus, coach Junior in the past five home matches recorded three wins in the championship and two in the National Cup, while they as guests at the same time have a series of five defeats and just one win. However, they are still very well ranked on the table of Serie A and they are currently fourth, with only four points behind the third Atletico Mineiro, while the leading duo Palmeiras-Flamengo is not that far away.
On the other hand, the fifth Fluminense approached them to only two points difference, which only tells us that this next match has very great importance for both teams, especially because there are only 10 rounds by the end of the championship. Otherwise, coach Junior recently uses mostly the same players in the starting 11, but this time because of international duties, he will not be able to count on their best player, midfielder Lucas Lim, so he will probably be replaced by the Argentinian Vecchio, while center-back Henrique and midfielders Alison and Bueno are all out of action due to injuries.
Probable lineups Santos: Vanderlei – Ferraz, Felipe, David Braz, Zeca – Renato, Maia – Mota, Vecchio, Copete – Oliveira
We have already said for Fluminense that they are coming to this match with Santos after three consecutive championship victories, of which two were made away, against their direct competitors in the fight for a place in the Copa Libertadores, Gremio and Corinthians. After two triumphs in a row with 1-0, they have in the final round routinely celebrated at home over Sport Recife with 3-1, and after a long time got close to fourth Santos to just two points.
But that does not mean that they will now in their mutual duel play a bit riskier than the previous two matches, because they themselves are aware that such tactics could cost them dearly against very unpleasant strikers from Santos. Therefore, it is much more realistic to expect that coach Culpi will opt for a more defensive setup, and over fast breaks and fouls try to possibly endanger the opponent’s goalkeeper. This position is the most problematic in this team because the performance of their first goalkeeper Cavalieri is questionable for this match due to a minor injury, while defender Jonathan and striker Dourado are absent for the same reason.
Probable lineups Fluminense: Julio Cesar – Wellington Silva, Gum, Henrique, William Matheus – Pierre, Douglas – Scarpa, Cicero, Wellington – Marcos Junior
Santos vs. Fluminense PICK
Since this is a direct clash in the battle for fourth place, which normally last leads in the Copa Libertadores, it is likely that both teams will first of all try to remain undefeated, so therefore we should not expect a lot of goals in this match.
Pick: under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.80 at bet365 (down to 1.75 can be played)